Posts Tagged ‘jobless claims’

Jobless Claims Rise, Mortgage Bonds Up, FHA's Changes

Thursday, January 21st, 2010

Yesterday was a pretty big day, and this morning even more.

The DOW is currently down about 133 points, and while several economic reports are out, the biggest one is, again, the Jobless Claims is in at 482k, that is the largest jump in claims in the past 8 months – a pretty big figure.

What does this mean for rates? Well, at the moment, we’re up about 25 bps so you should see a little drop – I’d say about .125% or so.

Remember- Economy bad, rates good.

The Treasury also  just announced next weeks auctions:

Tuesday, $44B of 2 Year Notes
Wednesday, $42B of 5 Year Notes
Thursday, $32B of 7 Year Notes

Yesterday, plastered all over the media, were the changes  in FHA financing. I don’t know about you, but I’m pretty sick and tired of all this “change” that has been going around lately.

While the majority of the details can be found on my blog, I also wanted to briefly outline them here as well.

So here’s what’s up:

1) Seller Contributions are going from 6% down to 3%.

a)     This is apparently being done to further help the consumer avoid added loan fees and inflated home prices. (I personally thought RESPA and HVCC were solving this)

2) Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premiums are being increased from 1.75% to 2.25%, and talks of the monthly mortgage insurance (currently .55%) going up as well

a)     Basically, it’s going to get a little bit more expensive for all borrowers regardless of credit score.

3) Down Payment of 10% on borrowers under a 580

a)     Now while FHA has implemented a minimum credit score of 580, that doesn’t really mean anything because all lenders these days are at least at a minimum score of a 620, so this rule won’t really affect you.

Now as for the timeframe in which these are going to be put into practice by lenders, it’s not certain yet, but I should be getting something soon, in which case, I’ll post an update on here.

If you really think about it, the only biggie here is the seller contributions. It just means that consumers are now going to need a little bit more cash available when buying homes to help cover closing costs.

Let the finger pointing begin…

Jobless Claims In – Not Good for Rates

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

Top of the morning to ya!

Last Thursday of 2009, so let’s see what’s going on.

Initial Jobless Claims are about to come in here in a little bit. We are expected to come in at 460k, higher than last reports figure of 452k. This report measures the number of people filing for state unemployment insurance for the first time.

Currently, and its early of course, we are down around 3 basis points, so not much movement at all.

(Update)

Jobless Claims just now came in at 432k, LOWER THAN EXPECTED. Good for economy, bad for mortgage rates.

MBS is NOW down 19 bps and rates will start off a little higher than yesterday.

Folks, we’ve been telling everyone to go on a “locking spree” here lately, so hopefully you’ve been taking advantage of this free advice and securing your mortgage rates.

Today’s markets are closing at 1PM EST due to the holiday.

If I’m not back, have a great and safe New Year!

Looking forward to another fantastic year!

It's a Wash- Enjoy Your Xmas Eve!

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

Happy Christmas Eve to everyone!

Here’s what we got this morning:

  1. Jobless Claims (measure the number of people filing for state unemployment insurance for the first time )
  2. Durable Goods Orders (reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods)

The Jobless Claims came in at 452K, lower than the expected 470k estimate. This is good for the economy, but bad for mortgage rates.

The Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.2%, lower than the 0.4% estimate – bad for the economy, good for mortgage rates.

This report data gives you an idea of demand, but also to business investment. If companies are willing to spend more time on resources for their business (equipment and other business capital), they are surely doing well for themselves and growing their business.

Since both reports have a decent impact on the mortgage bond market, we should see a wash for the most part.

Currently down 9 bps for the morning, we shouldn’t see much fluctuation in mortgage rates today.

Now go get some last minute Christmas shopping done!

Follow me on Twitter for your daily mortgage updates!

Busy and SHORT Week, So Chop Chop!

Monday, December 29th, 2008

Ok, so we have, including today, 3 days left until 2009. Forget the streamers, the FREE champagne, and the next day hangovers, its time to take advantage of what we have left in 2008.

I checked rates today and we are up about 32 bp (basis points) and are still hovering around the 4.75% mark on a 30 fixed, so lock ‘n load if you can.

No major reports today, but tomorrow’s Consumer Confidence report will have an impact in my opinion. What this reports does is detail the attitudes on present economic conditions and what consumers (YOU AND ME) expect to happen in the future, and this has a pretty big impact on stock and bond markets.

On Wednesday, the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) Purchase Applications report and the Jobless Claims Report will be coming out, in which last time was nearing the 7% mark.

Without going into too much detail, I would recommend locking something in at the moment. No point in risking ANYTHING with prices being this good. I don’t think this holiday season has been the best in terms of spending, and with the Hamas and Israel conflict going on too, this is definitely going to have a negative impact on oil prices which will hurt interest rates.

Take my advice and thank me in ’09.

Hope you all have a safe and great New Year!