Archive for October, 2009

I Hate To Say I TOLD You So!

Friday, October 30th, 2009

I hate to tell everyone I told them so, but I posted a blog similar to this GREAT article a while back. I cannot stress to you enough how important it is to work with an FHA Lender in Texas that UNDERSTANDS and foresees these types of things! Read on.

Addressing Continued Concerns About the FHA

by Brian Montgomery

In January of this year, both Joe Murin and I were asked by HUD Secretary Donovan to remain as Ginnie Mae president and FHA Commissioner respectively to help the new Administration deal with the on-going housing crisis.  We both were privileged to be asked and were honored to continue serving in the Obama Administration for several more months.

However, today, as a former government official, if I could leave you with one message it would be this:

There has never been a point in our nation’s history that better illustrates exactly why FHA and Ginnie Mae exist. During these uncertain economic times, their counter-cyclical role of ensuring adequate mortgage activity and liquidity has been necessary and vital.

FHA has saved close to one million sub-prime/Alt-A borrowers from possible financial ruin by allowing them to refinance into a safe and secure 30-year fixed rate mortgage.  Another 2 million qualified borrowers (80% of them first-time homebuyers) have taken advantage of the declining house prices and historically low interest rates to purchase a home using FHA.  FHA’s role has grown substantially from three percent of lending activity by dollar volume in 2006 to nearly 25 percent of all mortgages originated today. That massive uptick in volume occurred almost overnight beginning in spring 2008.

Through it all…. FHA has helped pump more than $400 billion of mortgage activity and liquidity into the market since 2008, while still managing to deliver a higher credit quality borrower whose average FICO score is 700.

One can only imagine how much worse our economy would be right now without the FHA. However, the growth of FHA in the past 18 months has understandably attracted a lot of attention. While the FHA did not take part in the housing boom, it is feeling its effects.

As many anticipated, given the current sluggish economy, the FHA is experiencing an increased rate of delinquencies and more foreclosures.

Simultaneously, as home values fall or just fail to appreciate, the number of homes the FHA insures is rising significantly. In October, this forced HUD to announce that in 2010 the FHA’s reserves could dip below the mandatory 2% level required by Congress.

Reminder: FHA collects premiums from borrowers (revenue) and also pays out claims to lenders when loans go into default and foreclosure (outlays).

For FHA, the primary reason for continued defaults and foreclosures will be macro-economic problems that go beyond the scope of underwriting. For instance, continued job losses and the further decline of home values and equity.

Absent a massive economic downturn, I don’t believe FHA will face the same type of catastrophic losses we saw in the subprime sector. The reasons for FHA’s problems are very different from the ones experienced in the subprime sector where unsafe loan features and poor underwriting made investing in non-agency mortgages risky from the start.

The FHA has undeniably tightened guidelines in an effort to help ensure a higher loan quality.  Prospective borrowers must verify income and job history as part of a rigorous underwriting process.

I offer this assurance in an effort to raise your comfort level as to the future of FHA.  FHA must keep its eyes on the ball to make certain that American homeowners and renters are served while American taxpayers are protected.

As a reminder, I offer the following insight about the strategies the FHA is considering to ensure the market remains confident in the FHA’s risk management models:

  • Tighten underwriting criteria
  • Increase premiums
  • Raise the down payment requirements above 3.5%
  • Overlay a credit score cut-off

Looking forward it’s important for all of us to continue advocating for reforms that better ensure a vibrant, transparent, and sound mortgage marketplace. Current market conditions highlight the critical role of the private and public sectors in keeping mortgage credit flowing.

All of us are trying to make sure we are well positioned to continue serving customers as this industry moves through truly tectonic change. I welcome the opportunity to hear about the challenges you face and discuss how all of us are addressing this brave new world of mortgage finance.

Existing Homes Sales Benefit from Tax Credit

Sunday, October 25th, 2009

by Adam Quinones

The National Association of Realtors released Existing Home Sales data this morning.

Think about the materials that go into building and maintaining a home….WOOD, STEEL, PLASTICS, WIRING, PIPING, CONCRETE, GLASS, ELECTRICITY, FURNITURE, CARPETING ,ELECTRONICS, APPLIANCES….LABOR.

How about the commissions earned by Realtors and mortgage originators who help the borrowers close on their home? What about the home sellers? They are either moving into a bigger house, which implies they will be spending to furnish their bigger home, or downsizing, which would imply a lower payment and therefore more disposable income to spend.

The point is, when homes are selling, money moves around the economy more efficiently. The size of the housing market combined with the broad influences it has over the economy make the real estate sector a reliable leading indicator of economic activity. Real estate is one of the first sectors to contract when a recession is looming and one of the first to show signs of recovery when economic activity begins to improve.

A caveat regarding Existing Home Sales: because existing home sales data is only reported at the time of closing, when the deed is transferred to the new owner, this report is considered less “forward looking” than other housing indicators like Pending Home Sales, Housing Starts, and Building Permits. This is because it can take up to three months for a purchase transaction to close. This problem has been more relevant in recent months as lender turn times have slowed and other roadblocks like HVCC, new RESPA rules, and market volatility have delayed closings. Pending Home Sales data helps provide more timely market data because it reports on the number of contracts that have been signed, not actual closing, therefore giving economists and traders a more timely read on the health of housing.

READ HOW THE NAR COMPILES DATA AND GAIN A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF SEASONAL INFLUENCES

Last month, the NAR reported that Existing Home Sales in August gave back a portion of their their strong July gains. Existing Home Sales, including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, declined 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million units in August from a pace of 5.24 million in July. This was 3.4 percent above the 4.93 million unit level in August 2008. In the previous four months, sales had risen a total of 15.2 percent.

This month the NAR reported the following:

From the NAR press release…

Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – jumped 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2 percent higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008.

Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.

Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 7.5 percent to 3.63 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 9.3-month supply in August. Unsold inventory totals are 15.0 percent below a year ago.

“The current housing supply is the lowest we’ve seen in two and a half years,” Yun said. “If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5 percent lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales rose 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in September from a pace of 4.47 million in August, and are 7.7 percent above the 4.54 million-unit level in September 2008.

The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in September, which is 8.1 percent below a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in September from 620,000 in August, and are 9.7 percent above the 561,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $175,100 in September, down 11.7 percent from September 2008.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 4.4 percent to an annual level of 950,000 in September, and are 11.8 percent higher than September 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $234,700, down 7.0 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 9.6 percent in September to a pace of 1.25 million and are 7.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $147,600, which is 1.0 percent below September 2008.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 9.0 percent to an annual level of 2.06 million in September and are 10.8 percent higher than September 2008. The median price in the South was $153,500, down 7.6 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West surged 13.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September and are 5.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $219,000, which is 15.0 percent below September 2008.
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Overall, today’s release indicated continued progress in the stabilization of the housing market. However we are troubled by the forward looking statements Yun made regarding the variables that must continue to improve if housing it to undergo further stabilization and recovery.

“We’re getting early indications of price stabilization, but we need a steady supply of qualified buyers to meaningfully bring inventories down and return us to a period of normal, steady price growth and to fully remove consumer fears, which would then revive the broader economy. Without a firm foundation for middle-class wealth recovery, the post-recession economic growth likely will be one of the weakest in U.S. history.”

Given our in-depth involvement in the primary mortgage market, we are not encouraged by Yun’s outlook. Specifically the comment on QUALIFIED BORROWERS. The continual contraction of the labor market and ongoing tightening of lender underwriting guidelines is already having a direct impact on Yun’s recovery assumptions, and we expect these issues to continue to impact the stabilization process.

On a regular basis we are contacted by consumers who complain of higher cost loans and loan denial due to an unexplained drop in their FICO score. We ask the same question each time we hear these outcrys: Did your credit card limits fall? The answer is almost always YES, my credit card limit was cut.  Next we ask, have you missed a payment on your car loan or even a credit card? If the answer is yes…credit scores have been drastically effected, which has resulted in outright loan denial or a higher mortgage rate.

Adding to our relatively negative outlook is the soon to expire first time home buyer tax credit. Yun says the tax credit has played a role in the stabilization so far:

“Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.”

We could go on and on about the industry, lender, and borrower specific problems limiting the housing recovery, however we believe the general big picture economic environment is providing enough roadblocks to recovery on its own. Thus, we will continue to state that until the labor market stabilizes and jobs start being created, the housing market will undergo a slow, frustrating recovery process (for mortgage and real estate professionals especially).

Consumers: Have you found the loan qualification process difficult?

Mortgage and Real Estate Professionals: Are you turning down more applicants? Are less deals closing? Are lending regs still tightening?

Are we being too bearish here?

3 Tips for Updating Your Credit History

Monday, October 12th, 2009

A neat Q & A that I came across today…

By Steve Bucci

Dear Debt Adviser,
A recent credit score report from TransUnion states that I “have no real estate accounts that can be used in determining a credit score.” Yet I do have a mortgage in good standing with a credit union that does not show up on my credit report. Would it be worth the effort to have this mortgage included, and how would I go about doing so?
– Eric

Dear Eric,
Your problem is more common than you might expect, although I don’t usually see it from mainstream lenders. An estimated 15 million consumers in the U.S. have mortgages that are not reported to the credit bureaus, according to Michael Nathans, the founder of Pay Rent, Build Credit, Inc. in Annapolis, Md. Nathans has been working for years to empower consumers with the ability to have their regular bill payments — often referred to as alternative or nontraditional credit information — included in credit decisions. I’ll come back to this later.

I predict that one of the other bureaus will have your mortgage listed. It would be unusual for your credit union not to have a relationship with at least one of the bureaus. It is more likely that the credit union does not have a relationship with TransUnion. So, I suggest you begin by checking your credit reports from the other two major credit bureaus — Equifax and Experian. You can access a free copy of your credit reports annually at www.AnnualCreditReport.com. Review your reports for accuracy and dispute any inaccurate or out-of-date information with the bureau that reported it.

Should you find that your mortgage does not appear on any of your credit reports from the major credit bureaus, I recommend you contact your credit union and ask what its policy is on reporting mortgage loans. Reporting your loan may have slipped through the cracks and once the credit union is alerted, it will be a simple matter of sending in the account activity to the bureaus.It could be that your credit union does not have a relationship with any of the credit bureaus, particularly if it’s very small. If that is the case, the bureaus will not contact your lender for information, and your account will not be included on that bureau’s report. Creditors are not required by law to report information to the credit bureaus, and likewise, the credit bureaus are not required to request information from creditors who do not have a financial relationship with the bureau such as landlords, small or private lenders or many utilities.

Unfortunately, there isn’t a practical way for a consumer to add nonreported accounts or payment histories to their bureau files. In order for accounts to be included in your bureau reports and scores, the source of the information must meet specific requirements under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, including updating a reported account regularly via the bureaus automated reporting system.

Some good news for consumers is Section 202.6 (b)(6) of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act establishes a consumer’s right to present all of his recurring monthly payment history in establishing his creditworthiness, and that information must be considered by a lender if it is available. Nathans, mentioned above, is now working on a Web-based, secure, consumer self-storage application for bill-paying information that should meet this requirement, enabling consumers to present their financial file to any lender and have it scored.

Until that happens, if your account does not appear on any report, I suggest that you keep a copy of your annual mortgage statement from your lender, the one you get for your taxes at year-end. It will show your payments and any fees you may have paid if you were late. Then, you can show any potential lender that you have a mortgage loan in good standing with your credit union that hasn’t been reported on your credit report, and you’ll be able to offer documentation of the loan when applying for credit.

Good luck!

***Update to a Previous Post***

Saturday, October 10th, 2009

In a previous post of mine, I outlined a problem that FHA has been currently dealing with, and today, on the front page of Yahoo, I found an article from the New York Times that gives a nice little update.

I wanted to repost it so please take a moment to read this, as its VERY important.

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U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout
by David Streitfeld and Louise Story
Friday, October 9, 2009

A year after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac teetered, industry executives and Washington policy makers are worrying that another government mortgage giant could be the next housing domino.

Problems at the Federal Housing Administration, which guarantees mortgages with low down payments, are becoming so acute that some experts warn the agency might need a federal bailout.

Running questions about the F.H.A.’s future — underscored by interviews with policy makers, analysts and home buyers — came to the fore on Thursday on Capitol Hill. In testimony before a House subcommittee, the F.H.A. commissioner, David H. Stevens, assured lawmakers that his agency would not need a bailout and that it was managing its risks.

But he acknowledged that some 20 percent of F.H.A. loans insured last year — and as many as 24 percent of those from 2007 — faced serious problems including foreclosure, offering a preview of a forthcoming audit of the agency’s finances.

“Let me simply state at the outset that based on current projections, absent any catastrophic home price decline, F.H.A. will not need to ask Congress and the American taxpayer for extraordinary assistance — we will not need a bailout,” Mr. Stevens said in his testimony.

But to its critics, the F.H.A. looks like another Fannie Mae. The hearings on Thursday came on the same day that the federal agency charged with overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac provided a somber assessment of those giants’ health. In the year since the government stepped in to rescue them, the companies have taken $96 billion from the Treasury, and may need more.

Since the bottom fell out of the mortgage market, the F.H.A. has assumed a crucial role in the nation’s housing market. Created in 1934 to help lower-income and first-time buyers purchase homes, the agency now insures roughly 5.4 million single-family home mortgages, with a combined value of $675 billion.

In addition, these loans are bundled into mortgage-backed securities and guaranteed through the Government National Mortgage Association, known as Ginnie Mae. That means the taxpayer is responsible for paying investors who own Ginnie Mae bonds when F.H.A.-backed mortgages hit trouble.

“It appears destined for a taxpayer bailout in the next 24 to 36 months,” Edward Pinto, a former Fannie Mae executive, said in testimony prepared for the hearing. Mr. Pinto, who was the chief credit officer from 1987 to 1989 for Fannie Mae, went further than most housing analysts and predicted that F.H.A. losses would more than wipe out the agency’s $30 billion of cash reserves.

The issue has polarized Congress. Republicans, who led efforts to rein in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before those companies ran into trouble, are now seeking to bridle the F.H.A. Many Democrats insist the F.H.A. is playing a vital role in the housing market, which is only just starting to stabilize.

“F.H.A. has stepped into the void left by the private market,” Representative Maxine Waters, Democrat from California, said at the hearing. “Let’s be clear; without F.H.A., there would be no mortgage market right now.”

That was the case for Bernadine Shimon. Like many Americans, Ms. Shimon has recently been through some rough times. She lost a house to foreclosure, declared bankruptcy, got divorced and is now a single mother, teaching high school English in a Denver suburb.

She wanted a house but no lender would touch her. The Federal Housing Administration was more obliging. With the F.H.A. insuring her mortgage, Ms. Shimon was able to buy a $134,000 fixer-upper in August.

“The government gave me another chance,” she said.

The government is giving as many people as it possibly can the chance to buy a house or, if they are in financial difficulty, refinance it. The F.H.A. is insuring about 6,000 loans a day, four times the amount in 2006. Its portfolio is growing so fast that even F.H.A. backers express amazement.

For decades it was an article of faith that helping people of limited means like Ms. Shimon get a house was good for the new owner, good for the neighborhood and good for American capitalism. Then came the housing bust, which demonstrated that when lenders allowed people to buy houses they ultimately could not afford, it hurt the parties — while putting the economy itself in a tailspin.

In the aftermath of the crash, there is wide divergence on how easy, or how hard, it should be to become a homeowner. Skittish lenders are asking for 20 percent down, which few prospective borrowers have to spare. As a result, private lending has dwindled.

The government has stepped into the breach, facilitating loans with down payments as low as 3.5 percent and offering other incentives to stabilize the market. Real estate agents in some hard-hit areas say every single one of their clients is using the F.H.A.

“They’re counting their pennies, scraping up that 3.5 percent,” Bonni Malone of Prudential Americana in Las Vegas said. “Mostly they’re buying foreclosed homes from banks, although I had one client who bought from a guy that was dying. It’s turning around the market.”

While the government’s actions have helped avert full-scale economic disaster, there is growing concern that it might have doled out its favors with too generous a hand.

Many of the loans the F.H.A. insured in 2007 and last year are now turning delinquent, agency officials acknowledge. The loans made in those two years are performing “far worse” than newer loans, dragging down the whole portfolio, Mr. Stevens of the F.H.A. said in an interview.

The number of F.H.A. mortgage holders in default is 410,916, up 76 percent from a year ago, when 232,864 were in default, according to agency data.

Despite the agency’s attempt to outrun its fate by insuring ever-larger amounts of new loans to such borrowers as Ms. Shimon — the current rate is over a billion dollars a day — 7.77 percent of the portfolio is in default, up from 5.6 percent a year ago.

Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said in an interview that the defaults were, in essence, worth it.

“I don’t think it’s a bad thing that the bad loans occurred,” he said. “It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That’s a policy.”

The troubled loans are nevertheless weighing on the agency’s capital reserve fund, which has fallen to below its Congressionally mandated minimum of 2 percent, from over 6 percent two years ago.

The optimism expressed by Mr. Stevens, the F.H.A. commissioner, places him at odds not only with some outside experts but with Kenneth Donohue, the inspector general of the Housing and Urban Development Department, who is also F.H.A.’s watchdog. Mr. Donohue said the drop in reserves was “a flashing red light” that the agency was not taking seriously enough.

“It might be we’ll get ourselves out of this and that everything will be fine, but I don’t paint that rosy a picture,” Mr. Donohue said. “They’re banking on the fact that the economy will continue to improve, that the housing market will begin to sustain itself.”

He noted that if private lenders had raised their down payment requirements in the last two years, it raised the question, “what does the F.H.A. think it is doing by asking only 3.5 percent?”

Any more than that and Ms. Shimon, 45, would still be a renter. As it was, she cashed in her retirement savings account to come up with the necessary funds. She did not have enough to spare for closing costs, so her mortgage broker arranged a deal where the charges were wrapped into the loan at the cost of a higher interest rate. She cried when the deal was done.

The house was empty and trashed. Slowly, she is trying to bring it back to life. She spent the first few weeks picking up garbage in the backyard.

Is Ms. Shimon a good bet? Even she has no easy answer. Her mortgage payment, $1,100, is half of what she takes home every month. It is not easy to make ends meet. Teachers can get laid off like everyone else.

“The government,” she said, “is doing what it needed to do — taking a risk on people.”

Chaz Fullenkamp, an automotive technician in Columbus, Ohio, got an F.H.A. loan even though he was living on the financial edge. “If I got unemployed, I’d be wiped out in a month or two,” he says. Thanks to the F.H.A., however, he is better off than he used to be.

Mr. Fullenkamp used F.H.A. insurance to buy a house this spring for $179,000. The eager seller paid the closing costs and also gave Mr. Fullenkamp $2,500 in cash. He immediately applied for the $8,000 tax rebate. Even taking his down payment into account, he came out ahead.

“I knew in my heart I could not really afford the house, but they gave it to me anyway,” said Mr. Fullenkamp, 22. “I thought, ‘Wow, I’m surprised I pulled that off.’ ”

As the number of loans has soared, random quality control checks have decreased sharply, F.H.A. staff members say. Mr. Donohue, the inspector general, cited numerous examples of organized fraud in testimony to Congress earlier this year.

“They need to stop taking bad loans in the door,” he said in an interview. “They’re taking on all this volume, they have to have very active underwriting standards.”

Jack Healy contributed reporting from New York.